Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.015615 0.017687 0.019949 0.022606 0.025645 0.029016 0.033045
2024-10-13 0.011883 0.014579 0.017782 0.021881 0.027006 0.033225 0.041382
2024-10-20 0.009963 0.012886 0.016559 0.021538 0.028151 0.036683 0.048613
2024-10-27 0.008436 0.011382 0.015253 0.020752 0.028421 0.038826 0.054163
2024-11-03 0.007792 0.010914 0.015185 0.021509 0.030728 0.043818 0.064066
2024-11-10 0.007219 0.010452 0.015035 0.022080 0.032763 0.048569 0.074111
2024-11-17 0.006727 0.010037 0.014884 0.022590 0.034710 0.053332 0.084671
2024-11-24 0.006112 0.009366 0.014270 0.022309 0.035373 0.056142 0.092405
2024-12-01 0.005602 0.008802 0.013754 0.022105 0.036099 0.059074 0.100611
2024-12-08 0.005167 0.008308 0.013293 0.021929 0.036824 0.062035 0.109152
2024-12-15 0.004926 0.008104 0.013274 0.022468 0.038790 0.067266 0.122281
2024-12-22 0.004569 0.007673 0.012837 0.022244 0.039385 0.070128 0.131359
2024-12-29 0.004401 0.007555 0.012931 0.022980 0.041814 0.076627 0.148299
2025-01-05 0.003995 0.006992 0.012205 0.022172 0.041319 0.077653 0.154672
2025-01-12 0.003705 0.006606 0.011758 0.021829 0.041653 0.080267 0.164527
2025-01-19 0.003379 0.006129 0.011105 0.021031 0.041012 0.080879 0.170241
2025-01-26 0.003294 0.006091 0.011257 0.021800 0.043561 0.088173 0.191255
2025-02-02 0.003190 0.006007 0.011313 0.022378 0.045776 0.095003 0.212125
2025-02-09 0.003086 0.005912 0.011339 0.022896 0.047908 0.101880 0.234009
2025-02-16 0.002899 0.005640 0.010994 0.022611 0.048283 0.104946 0.247272
2025-02-23 0.002735 0.005402 0.010699 0.022404 0.048803 0.108383 0.261877
2025-03-02 0.002587 0.005186 0.010430 0.022226 0.049366 0.111971 0.277326
2025-03-09 0.002520 0.005130 0.010488 0.022773 0.051648 0.119835 0.304832